Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 1.167270 1.232812 1.300823 1.376817 1.459540 1.547061 1.646919
2026-01-11 1.076232 1.170217 1.272067 1.391239 1.527628 1.679779 1.863663
2026-01-18 1.011060 1.121193 1.244137 1.392722 1.569022 1.773574 2.031924
2026-01-25 0.975473 1.099527 1.241494 1.417873 1.633834 1.893323 2.234532
2026-02-01 0.918871 1.048202 1.198953 1.390164 1.629968 1.926053 2.328058
2026-02-08 0.864671 0.995935 1.151234 1.351587 1.607912 1.931741 2.383685
2026-02-15 0.829657 0.964570 1.126513 1.338957 1.616192 1.974637 2.489219
2026-02-22 0.804801 0.944076 1.113600 1.339628 1.640396 2.038349 2.626251
2026-03-01 0.772851 0.913106 1.085745 1.318976 1.634327 2.059644 2.703340
2026-03-08 0.736754 0.875387 1.047552 1.282598 1.604516 2.045506 2.726345
2026-03-15 0.715657 0.855868 1.031783 1.274904 1.612940 2.084634 2.830494
2026-03-22 0.706377 0.851019 1.034624 1.291955 1.656056 2.175231 3.019874
2026-03-29 0.685989 0.831706 1.018544 1.283617 1.664467 2.218057 3.142131
2026-04-05 0.674850 0.824146 1.017797 1.296437 1.704018 2.310085 3.353522
2026-04-12 0.660295 0.811411 1.009387 1.297771 1.726305 2.376560 3.527888
2026-04-19 0.654335 0.809845 1.015929 1.320427 1.781331 2.497698 3.809749
2026-04-26 0.632319 0.785787 0.990502 1.295467 1.762049 2.497535 3.872081
2026-05-03 0.608192 0.758168 0.959237 1.260675 1.725717 2.466911 3.874434
2026-05-10 0.593115 0.742532 0.944238 1.249275 1.725316 2.495787 3.992212
2026-05-17 0.582746 0.733057 0.937555 1.249881 1.743744 2.557351 4.179709
2026-05-24 0.566803 0.715388 0.918642 1.231229 1.730118 2.562462 4.254075
2026-05-31 0.547137 0.692060 0.891002 1.198339 1.691831 2.522027 4.230676
2026-06-07 0.536309 0.680877 0.880535 1.191377 1.695760 2.556627 4.368136